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Invasive procedures have the greatest effect, eg injections rather than pills, even placebo surgery where people are cut open and sewn up with little or nothing done.
Anti-social personality disorder: This is a term that embraces both the psychopath and the sociopath. Basically they involve people who have no conscience, and are incapable of empathy, guilt or loyalty.
They also cannot 'bide time'. They like the here and now, and having an exciting time. They eschew stability and routine, and often seem devoid of physical or social anxiety. They are often in trouble with the law and authority figures, primarily because they are impulsive. Their crimes include things like petty theft, fraud, forgery and failure to pay debts. They lie to everyone with apparent candour and sincerity. They often seek thrills associated with alcohol, gambling, drugs and sex.
Clever psychopaths have massive but superficial charm. They often have to keep 'on the move' because after a while communities get to know and mistrust them.
This geographical and vocational mobility is a good index of their pathology. When asked about justice and morality in the abstract, they tend to give the 'correct' conventional answer. They just don't apply this knowledge of right or wrong to themselves. Psychopaths at work often appear relatively normal or successful. They build up relationships with powerful or influential people.
They exploit them, then they cast them aside. Stress: 1 Anxious worriers. Cognitive dissonance: All of us dislike experiencing cognitive dissonance.
This happens when we have chosen an attitude that we feel is wrong, and we did this totally of our own free will. We weren't ordered to chose this attitude, nor did we have no alternatives to choose from. It was a choice of free will. It also has to be an attitude that cannot be changed by issuing an apology, or making good our bad behaviour.
Ways we ameliorate the experience of cognitive dissonance: we say things like Commitment: If we make a commitment to something, we are likely to follow through.
Salesmen know that very well eg "Would you download if the price was right? Now all they have to do is offer you a cheaper price. Commitment is powerful - avoiding inconsistency is a strong motivation for us.
The Gambler's fallacy: This is a misunderstanding of probability and statistics. Judgement and Problem solving Common mistakes people make: 1 People believe that results taken from small samples are as valid as those taken from large samples.
We over-emphasise their importance. Decisions: It is better to reach decision by thinking things through by yourself rather than brainstorming in a group. In the latter instance we self-censor ourselves, plus it can be muddling.
It can also lead people to make extreme decisions. We tend to have habitual ways of making decisions, eg we do plus and minus lists, or consult with other people, or we get very emotional about it. Loss aversion: We attach more to the possibility of loss than the possibility of gain. This evaluation costs you money, or you paper trade it aside the market, and as mentioned before, this is a non-deterministic process that just adds noise and leaks data.
The truth is, simple statistics, Monte Carlo simulation and a little bit of Python is all you need. The fancy models are good for your ego and general understanding.
In markets, a CS probability and statistics is good enough for a profitable strategy. Prior to that I used to explain people how fancy my Machine Learning flows are, without being able to explain the alpha. The asset price bounding methodology is pretty complex, but the alpha source is clear. The truth is people act as traders each and every day without even noticing. You go to the supermarket to download stuff. Here is your market exchange.
Prices are your bid-ask-spreads level 1. You can only download ask , but the supplier can also sell bid.
The supply at the back of the supermarket is level 2. The cashier is your order-book. Seriously, the more complexity I was adding to my algos, the larger were my losses. Clouded by fancy Spark jobs, Lambda expressions and beautiful Jupyter notebooks, I actually was making less money. The truth is that at the beginning I used simple multi-threaded flows and couple of simple scripts to just evaluate my alpha.
The moment I began concentrating on performance and ease, I lost track of the alpha itself. The most important thing is to keep track of a simple and working flow, then you can add the jewelry, on top of a strong skeleton. Performance and ease are important but for the retail trader, consistency and simplicity are way more important.
Sometimes the market is brutal and fast like an alligator. Avoid those situations by playing small. One of the biggest mistakes I made was over betting. Although Kelly criterion is important consideration, under betting is always better than over betting.
Risk assessments and position sizing are key to your success. Having a strategy with high probability of winning is as important as correct position sizing and margin requirements analysis. Every mistake I made was followed by someone telling me it could have been avoided. Your family, friends and colleagues will doubt you, your alpha, your skills and your ideas. Most of the pro trades specify the psychological robustness needed for the game. Some days will be rainy, always be prepared.
Moreover, I lost my soul. In some moment I almost forgot how to play the guitar. Every social event was suddenly annoying and time consuming, or a waste of precious coding time to me. Long working hours and weekends full of development and hundreds of commits, eating disorders and the most obvious loss of weight.
I read somewhere it was actually a sign of doing a great job in my endeavor. Suddenly I understood the well-known saying regarding how much money were you able to actually take and keep from the markets. The most important thing is that suddenly I was fearless, nothing could frighten me anymore. In a way I realized how fragile and dangerous this business is. I started trading small, really small. Instead of jumping into trades like a panther, I was investigating the company first, plus usually multiple trade ideas will appear for the same symbol, so there is no FoMO Fear of Missing Out.
Moreover I reduced my watch-lists significantly, focusing on liquidity and volume. This a-ha moment was the most significant. Getting in and out of a trade is mandatory. All of my losing trades were with low liquidity assets and bad fundamentals, things that takes you seconds to evaluate nowadays.
Commissions seemed irrelevant and minor. The only way to avoid commission ripping is trading size. People tend to talk about diversification and all of that stuff. How positions should be small and so on. Well the reality shows that trading too small kills you. This is a personal parameter and a function of your account size, risk aversion etc. Patience One of the toughest things to accomplish during day trading is patience.
Sometimes the best trade is not to trade, similar to Zugzwang in chess. Being a day trader means being a market junkie, which implies addiction and adrenaline rush during the opening bell. Sometimes cash is king, simply not trading or waiting for the appropriate trade is the best you can do, especially when markets go crazy in times of sellouts or crisis.
Mastering this urge is key to your success. So many times I have been adding to losing positions or trying to save terminal positions, instead of waiting and keeping the cash.
The big money is not made in the downloading and selling Patience is also relevant to entry and exits. Then you will adjust and chase the price which will move again. Eventually you will hold on to your opinions and wait for the other side to take it. From my experience if the underlying is liquid, all day trades with middle prices will be filled. The market can bounce, and you will be naked.
Your losses could get smaller. I had a bear spread after the market selloff in Feb , fixed it with 0. The next day it became 0. You may start playing a new instrument right away and probably anyone could do some sounds after a weeks or so. After a month you will be able to play some notes and hopefully a song. The question is how long will it take you to play like Steve Vai?
He mentioned practicing 8 hours a day, and sure he is gifted, but then again, hard work is key. Similarly, trading requires a lot of practice. Getting to a level of trading effortlessly is what divides professionals and hobby traders. The learning never stops. The best content is available online and mainly for free.
Those guys will teach you everything you need to know. One of the most frustrating concepts in trading options, besides the commissions is market makers. Market makers are essentially the players that run the show. Those minor differences compound like a snow ball.
As mentioned before, commissions are part of the problem, but without them there will be no arenas to trade in. The real issue is market makers bluffing the order books.
All of the infrastructures are automated, and the fast players are everywhere to catch your trades, happily providing you high prices when downloading and low prices when selling. The only way to beat it is to use limit orders and try to anticipate the middle price. This a-ha moment seems like a minor issue, but multiplying trades by 2.
Never use market orders or bid-ask raw prices, always target the mid-price or better. You must understand and know how to utilize any setup and combination depending on lighting conditions. Once you know it, then the real art begins. In case of failure I can easily resume my trading immediately with all the software I need.
My network connectivity is pretty stable. On bad weather or rare incidents I have multiple network adapters so that my smartphone becomes a hot spot. I added multiple automation layers to make my trading robust and consistent as possible.
Analysis paralysis is bad, particularly in trading. Try to eliminate manual interrogations as much as you can. I made dozens of fat finger errors, and probably lost couple of thousands due to wrong prices and combinations of multiple trades. Rushing and lack of knowledge will lead to dumb mistakes and loss of capital.
Learn your trading software thoroughly.